Month: November 2025

You are welcome to join on 2 December, Tuesday between 10.00-11.00 [Estonian Time] for a research seminar by Tiit Elenurm.

Title: Custom ChatGPT application in entrepreneurship learning and research

Location: EBS room 224 and MS Teams (LINK)

Please be invited to an upcoming Latvijas Banka Research seminar on methods and implementation of optimal policy projections held by Thomas Dengler from Deutsche Bundesbank. More information will follow soon.

Title: Optimal Policy Projections – Methods and Implementation

Time: 4 December 2025 10:30-12:00

Venue: Latvijas Banka’s Lielā sēžu zāle (223-2A) and MS Teams (LINK).

You are welcome to the Department of Economics and Finance research seminar “Stress-testing Australian Mortgagors“.

The seminar will take place on the 10th of December, from 16:00 to 17:00 in room SOC-460 and in MS Teams (LINK).

Presenter: Benjamin Beckers (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Authors:
Benjamin Beckers – Reserve Bank of Australia
Amelia Gao – Reserve Bank of Australia

Abstract:  How resilient indebted households are to adverse macroeconomic shocks has implications for financial stability risks in Australia, given household loans account for around two-thirds of Australian banks’ lending. In this paper, we develop a novel household-level stress-testing model that is now used regularly to support the Reserve Bank’s assessment of financial stability risks arising from mortgage debt in Australia. The model uses rich loan-level data from the Securitisation System which allows to stress-test around one third of all Australian borrowers’ ability to service their debts under different macroeconomic scenarios. Extending earlier Australian household stress-testing models, a key feature of our model is that we explicitly account for the liquid savings buffers that most Australian mortgagors hold in offset and redraw accounts. We illustrate how the model is used by Reserve Bank staff to support the assessment of banks’ credit risks by running three hypothetical macroeconomic scenarios. We demonstrate that accounting for borrowers’ savings buffers from mortgage prepayments can almost halve the estimated expected credit losses faced by lenders in a severe macroeconomic shock. Our model can also shed a light on the distribution of budget pressures faced by different mortgagor households as a result of financial or economic shocks.

Authors:
Matti Sarvimäki – Aalto University, VATT and Helsinki GSE
Aapo Stenhammar – University of Bonn
Jaan Masso – University of Tartu

Abstract. While there is an active debate of the welfare effects of the reducing migration restrictions, there is still rather limited empirical evidence on how many—and what kinds of—people would migrate if wealthy countries opened their borders, and we know even less about how much their incomes would change as a result. During the 1990s and early 2000s, migration restrictions between Estonia and EU countries gradually shifted from entirely closed borders to completely free movement of labour. Using population-wide data linking census and administrative records from Estonia and the primary destination country, Finland, we examine how returns and selection to migration changed over evolving migration policies and economic conditions. Our analysis begins with individual-level records from the 1989 census conducted in the Soviet Republic of Estonia. In collaboration with Statistics Estonia and Statistics Finland, we have linked these data to the 2000 and 2011 Estonian censuses and to Estonian tax records available from 2005 onward, as well as to Finland’s administrative registers, which provide detailed annual information on labour market outcomes and demographics from 1988 onward. The resulting dataset allows us to track individuals across borders and compare migrants to non-migrants through 2021. We estimate the income effects of migrating from Estonia to Finland by comparing the earnings trajectories of migrants to those who migrate later, as well as to a matched sample of workers who do not migrate during our study period. Our results show that upon moving to Finland, migrants experience a sharp increase in earnings relative to non-migrants, and these differences persist over time. Event-study estimates suggest that, on average, migration more than doubles earnings in PPP-adjusted terms and nearly quadruples them in nominal terms. Estimates using non-migrants as a control group yield very similar result. The effects decline monotonically with income, and we find no PPP-adjusted returns for individuals originating from the top decile. These results align with the predictions of the influential Borjas (1987) model, which shows that monetary returns and migration decisions are shaped by the full income distributions in both the sending and receiving countries, as well as by the transferability of skills.

On 2 December at 11:00, please be invited to the upcoming University of Tartu research seminar in which Thomas Post (Maastricht University) will present his work: Market Your Share! How Marketing Capability and its Communication Shape Analyst & Investor Relationships.

Zoom LINK

Abstract: Assessing the value of the intangible asset base that drives firm value is a pivotal task for financial analysts and investors. Firms have therefore created specialized investor relations (IR) teams that maintain contact with and inform these stakeholders about the firms’ performance. This study investigates the relationship a firm maintains with its analyst and investor base through the market-based asset Analyst & Investor Relationships (AIR). Using a comprehensive survey-based measure of AIR quality across an unbalanced panel of 1,159 U.S. firms from 2015 to 2020, findings suggest that this asset contributes positively to firm value, measured by Total q. Furthermore, drawing on resource-based theory, the study explores marketing capabilities (MC) as a critical antecedent of AIR. The findings indicate that firms with higher MC exhibit stronger AIR. Additionally, the study examines how the communication of MC in quarterly earnings calls further enhances the value of AIR. Findings suggest that a firm’s ability to effectively “market its shares” to analysts and investors strengthens relationship quality. This study contributes to the marketing–finance literature by demonstrating the positive impact of MC on a firm’s financial relationships, providing deeper insights into the underlying mechanisms through which MC contributes to firm value.

On 27 November at 10:00, please be invited to the upcoming Latvijas Banka’s Research seminar in which Arkādijs Zvaigzne (PhD candidate at Harvard University) will present his work: Dynamics of Financial Aid Tournaments.

MS Teams LINK

Abstract:  Financial aid programs in higher education vary widely in design, including how aid is structured and the timing of provision. The design of student financial aid is critical, as the structure of one award can create powerful spillovers, potentially crowding in or crowding out resources from other programs. This paper studies the impact of financial aid provided as a repeated tournament and its dynamic treatment effects. I exploit a relative GPA-based eligibility rule in a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal impacts of two types of aid – a tuition waiver and a stipend on top. Waivers have powerful effects on the extensive margin, increasing graduation rates by 12pp, and GPA by 0.4 standard deviations. Stipends only affect the intensive margin by increasing student GPA in the next semester by 0.3 standard deviations. I find a powerful crowding-in effect, where receiving aid in one semester significantly increases the probability of receiving it in the future. Decomposing the impact reveals that a substantial portion of the total long-term benefit of aid comes from the crowding-in of future resources, suggesting that static analyses may underestimate the full value of financial aid programs.

On 26 November at 11:00, please be invited to the upcoming Latvijas Banka’s Research seminar in which Luigi Palumbo (Banca d’Italia) will present his work: Nowcasting the Italian Consumer Price Index using Online Prices and Machine Learning.

MS Teams: LINK

Abstract:  Timely and accurate forecasts of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an essential economic indicator measuring consumer prices over time, are crucial for central banks. Traditional forecasting models often struggle to incorporate real-time data and adapt to rapid changes in the economic environment, leading to potential inaccuracies in short-term forecasts. In this paper, we explore the potential of using online food price data obtained from 20 supermarkets across several major cities of a well-known chain in Italy from December 2020 to March 2023. Our objective is exploring the feasibility and accuracy of forecasting CPI for specific food categories using real-time, web-scraped data, particularly in periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty like those following the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the war in Ukraine. Our analysis demonstrates the potential of real-time web-scraped data for predicting official CPIs and offers valuable insights for researchers and practitioners interested in this specific approach. In particular, our results suggest that web-based price data can complement traditional statistical sources, providing more granular and timely indicators that are especially useful during periods of economic volatility.

Ana Kujundžić – Wageningen University
Janneke Pieters – CPB, Wageningen University, and IZA

We are happy to invite you to the fourth lecture of the J. Stroinovskis lecture series organized by the Bank of Lithuania and Vilnius University. On the 6^th of November Rolf Strauch (European Stability Mechanism, ESM) will give a lecture on „Geopolitical Shocks and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for financial stability in the euro area from the ESM’s perspective“ in the TechHub conference hall (2^nd floor).

• Time: November 6, 14:00-15:15
• Venue: TechHub Conference Room (Saulėtekio al.9, 2nd building, 2nd floor) NB: seminar will be held live and will not be streamed online

Effective governance lies at the heart of long-term family business success. On 15-16 June 2026, Estonian Business School (EBS) will host the 4th Baltic Family Firm Institute – ECGI Conference Steering the Legacy: Governance and Succession in Family Enterprises. The event will explore how family firms can strengthen governance, manage succession, and navigate the growing complexity of family offices and shared assets. Participants will explore evolving best practices in board composition, financial and managerial decision-making, and conflict resolution, as well as strategies for preparing next-generation leaders and aligning family and business goals. Through discussions with leading family business owners, advisors, and academics, the event will offer insights on how strong governance can drive sustainable growth, preserve legacy, and foster harmony across generations.

A selection will be made by the conference scientific committee from papers and abstracts that are submitted before the deadline of 1 February 2026 (at midnight CEST). Researchers will be notified whether their paper has been accepted for the conference before 1 March 2026.

Program queries should be directed to Anete Pajuste (anete.pajuste@sseriga.edu).

Venue: Estonian Business School, A. Lauteri 3, Tallinn, Estonia

Visit the event’s page for more info.