BEA online research seminar – Tatyana Deryugina

Dear Colleagues,

We are pleased to invite you to the next Baltic Economic Association Online Research Seminars and are delighted to welcome Tatyana Deryugina (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign). In normal times, Tatyana is an Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. Her work focuses on the economics of natural disasters, air pollution, and other environmental shocks. Taytana has published in leading economics journals, including the American Economic Review. She is a co-editor at the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (JAERE) and at Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy (EEPE). She also serves on the board of editors of American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (AEJ: Policy). Tatyana iscurrently spending most of her spare time doing what she can to stop the war and war crimes in Ukraine. She publishes about her work and the opportunities to help on her personal website (https://deryugina.com/) and on twitter (https://twitter.com/TDeryugina).

Speaker: Tatyana Deryugina (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign). 

More about the speaker:  https://deryugina.com/

Title: Pollution and Mortality in the United States: Evidence from 1972- 1988 (with Julian Reif)

Abstract: We estimate the effects of sulfur dioxide (SO2) exposure on short- and long-run mortality in the US over the period 1972-1988. Using wind direction as an instrument for changes in daily SO2 levels, we estimate that a one-day, one part-per-billion increase in SO2 raises all-age mortality by 0.18 deaths per million over the next four weeks. This immediate mortality increase is concentrated among the elderly. We then calibrate a dynamic production model of health using our short-run estimates. The model suggests that the 1972-1988 reductions in SO2 can explain a meaningful share of the observed mortality decline over this time period.

Date: Thursday, March 31

Time: 16:00 Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn

Connexion: https://sseriga-edu.zoom.us/j/82126836795?pwd=NTVZbFlNZGNrTXYyU2tPWFBaVy83UT09

Meeting ID: 821 2683 6795
Passcode: 860302

Message from the Board – War in Ukraine

The Baltic Economic Association stands in solidarity with the people of Ukraine and its academic community. We cannot find strong enough words to condemn Russia’s invasion. 

The first aim of the BEA is to contribute to the development of economics as an evidence-based discipline in the region. The ongoing massive disinformation campaign aiming at justifying this attack is against everything we stand for. 

The second aim of the Association is to promote intellectual exchanges between economists in the region. We developed close ties with the Kyiv School of Economics, which for instance contributes to the Baltic Journal of Economics. We are deeply concerned by the safety of our colleagues and their students. 

Expression of support must be accompanied by acts. The Kyiv School of Economics is raising fund for humanitarian purposes. We kindly ask you to consider a donation (EUR/USD/UAH/crypto): https://kse.ua.

They are also doing an amazing work organizing debates with international experts on the latest development of the conflict. Follow KSE (@KyivSchool), Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) and Tymofii Brik (@brik_t) on Twitter for more information.  

The BEA is willing to act as an interface between its institutional members and Ukrainian economists. We will centralise and financially support visiting programs for Ukrainian economists in the Baltics. More information coming soon. 

Finally, a few months ago, some of our colleagues at BEROC (Belarus) had to fly to Kyiv to escape from repression because of their academic work. We also think about them. 

BEA online research seminar – Jaan Masso

We are pleased to invite you to the next Baltic Economic Association Online Research Seminars and are delighted to welcome Jaan Masso (University of Tartu). Jaan is Head of Chair of Economic Modelling, programme managers of the Master’s Programme in Quantitative Economics and Senior Research Fellow of applied econometrics at the University of Tartu (UT). He has also worked as a visiting researcher at Eesti Pank. He holds a PhD in Economics from the UT since 2005. His main research areas are labour economics, migration, foreign direct investments, innovations, international trade, research policy. He has participated in various national and international research projects (EU, ILO, OECD, World Bank). His publications include articles in Journal of Comparative Economics, European Journal of Industrial Relations, Eastern European Economics, Economics of Transition, Services Industries Journal, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, International Business Review, Review of World Economics. He is Associate Editor at the Baltic Journal of Economics and a member of the board of the Baltic Economic Association.

More about the speaker: https://www.etis.ee/CV/Jaan_Masso/est?tabId=CV_ENG

Speaker: Jaan Masso (University of Tartu)

Title: Joining and exiting the value chain of multinationals and the performance of suppliers: evidence from inter-firm transaction data (with Priit Vahter)

Paper available here.

Abstract: This paper investigates the productivity effects for domestic suppliers from joining and exiting the value chains of multinational enterprises (MNEs). The vast majority of prior literature has relied on sector-level input-output tables in estimating the effects of vertical linkages of FDI. Instead, our econometric analysis of the creation and destruction of backward linkages of MNEs is based on information on firm-to-firm transactions recorded in the valued added tax declarations data. Treatment analysis based on propensity score matching and panel data from Estonia suggests that starting to supply multinationals initially boosts the value added per employee of domestic firms, including effects on the scale of production and the capital-labour ratio. These first linkages to MNEs do not affect the total factor productivity (TFP) of domestic firms, suggesting that TFP effects take time to materialise. We further find that there are limits to the wider diffusion of the effects of linkages to MNEs. We find no significant positive effects on the second-tier suppliers: the positive effects are limited to the first-tier suppliers with direct links to MNEs. One novel result is the evidence that the productivity of suppliers does not fall, on average, after decreasing or ending supplier relationships with MNE customers.

Date: Thursday, February  17

Time: 16:00 Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn

Topic: BEA seminar – Jaan Masso
Time: Feb 17, 2022 04:00 PM Helsinki

Join Zoom Meeting
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Meeting ID: 854 2733 2241
Passcode: 740705

BEA online research seminar – Ilja Kantorovitch

We are pleased to invite you to the next Baltic Economic Association Online Research Seminars and are delighted to welcome Ilja Kantorovitch (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland). Ilja is currently a Postdoctoral Researcher Luisa Lambertini’s Chair of International Finance at EPFL in Lausanne, Switzerland. He did his PhD at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona. His research focuses on information frictions in financial markets and the macroeconomy. He is interested in understanding how information production and belief formation influence outcomes in financial markets and, subsequently, in the macroeconomy. Ilja was awarded the Best PhD Paper Award at the 3rd Baltic Economic Association Conference. He was also a finalist at the 2021 ECB Young Economists Competition.

More about the speaker: https://www.kantorovitch.eu/home

Speaker: Ilja Kantorovitch (EPFL, Lausanne)

Title: Does Dispersed Sentiment drive Returns, Turnover, and Volatility for Bitcoin? (with Janko Heineken)

Paper available here.

Abstract:

We test the theoretical predictions of the differences-of-opinion literature by analyzing the extensive online discussion on Bitcoin to build a time-varying sen- timent distribution, defining disagreement as dispersion in sentiment. High disagreement is associated with negative returns, high turnover growth, and high volatility, confirming the theory’s predictions. However, we do not find that an increase in disagreement increases the price, which is seemingly at odds with the theoretical prediction of disagreement leading to overpricing. As the theory predicts, the disagreement effect weakens significantly after shorting instruments were introduced at the end of 2017. Our results are economically significant: at the monthly frequency, a one standard deviation increase in disagreement leads to a 9.2 percentage points lower cumulative return over the following eight months, and the adjusted R2 of regressing contemporaneous returns on average sentiment and disagreement is 0.33.

Date: Thursday, January 27

Time: 16:00 Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn

Join Zoom Meeting
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Meeting ID: 848 0756 2729
Passcode: 654163

BEA online research seminar – Artūras Juodis

We are pleased to invite you to the next Baltic Economic Association Online Research Seminars and are delighted to welcome Artūras Juodis (University of Amsterdam). Arturas earned a PhD from the University of Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute. He is now an Assistant Professor at the Amsterdam School of Economics where his research focuses on econometric theory of panel data models. His current research on econometrics of misspecified panel data models is financed by the NWO Veni grant. His research was published in the Journal of Econometrics, the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, and the Econometrics Journal, among others.

More about the speaker: https://sites.google.com/site/ajuodisresearch/home?authuser=0

Speaker: Artūras Juodis (University of Amsterdam)

Title: This Shock is Different: Estimation and Inference in Misspecified Two-Way Fixed Effects Regressions 

Paper available here.

Abstract:

We investigate the properties of the linear Two-way Fixed Effects (FE) estimator for panel data when the underlying Data Generating Process (DGP) of all observed variables is left completely unspecified. The FE estimator is consistent for some pseudo-true value and characterize the corresponding asymptotic distribution. We show that the rate of convergence is determined by the degree of model misspecification, and that the asymptotic distribution can be non-normal. Furthermore, we argue that uniform non-conservative inference is impossible in this setup, and propose a novel Autoregressive Double Adaptive Wild (AdaWild) bootstrap procedure applicable for a large class of DGPs. Our bootstrap procedure is easy to compute, and Monte Carlo simulations show that it performs well. We use data from U.S. manufacturing industries to illustrate the benefits of our procedure.

Date: Thursday, December 16

Time: 16:00 Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn

Join Zoom Meeting
https://sseriga-edu.zoom.us/j/85426463318?pwd=d04wVlM5OVdvOXFLd09aUWh4cXhjdz09

Meeting ID: 854 2646 3318
Passcode: 627358

BEA online research seminar – Francesco Zanetti

We are pleased to invite you to the next Baltic Economic Association Online Research Seminars and are delighted to welcome Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford). Francesco Zanetti is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford and the David Richards Fellow of Wadham College. He holds a PhD in Economics from Boston College, and a PhD in Economic Theory and Institutions from the University of Bologna. Before joining Oxford in September 2012, he spent eight years in the Bank of England, first as an Economist, Senior Economist and Advisor in the Monetary Analysis Section. He is a visiting scholar at the Bank of International Settlements, the Bank of England and provided technical support and training to more than forty central banks around the world. He held visiting teaching positions at the London School of Economics, London Business School, and the joint IMF Vienna Institute. His research interests are in the fields of Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics and Applied Econometrics. Among other topics, he has worked on labor market dynamics and the effect of structural reforms, the propagation of news shocks, the state dependence of fiscal multipliers, and the impact of unconventional policies. He is a recipient of the British Academy Mid-Career Fellowship for the academic year 2020-2021. His past research was supported by the British Academy, Leverhulme Foundation, the Australian Research Cancil, the Zengin Foundation, and the John Fell Fund. He serves as an associate editor for the Economic Journal, Journal of Money, Credit and BankingOxford Bulletin of Economics and StatisticsOxford Economic Papers, as a co-editor for Macroeconomic Dynamics, and as a member of the editorial board for Central Bank Review. His research has appeared in leading academic journals and policy forums.

More about the speaker: https://users.ox.ac.uk/~wadh4073/

Speaker: Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford)

Title: State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: The Source of Fluctuations Matters (with Mishel Ghassibe)

Paper available here.

Abstract:

We develop a general theory of state-dependent fiscal multipliers in a framework featuring interaction between two empirically relevant goods market frictions: idle productive capacity and unsatisfied demand. Our key novel finding is that the source of economic fluctuations determines the cyclicality of fiscal multipliers. Policies that stimulate aggregate demand, such as government spending and consumption tax cuts, have multipliers that are large in demand- driven recessions, but small and possibly negative in supply-driven downturns. On the other hand, policies that boost aggregate supply, such as cuts in taxes on labor income and firms’ payroll and sales, are ineffective in demand- driven recessions, but powerful if the downturn is driven by supply factors. Spending austerity, implemented by a reduction in government consumption, can be the policy with the largest multiplier in severe supply-side recessions and demand-driven booms, provided elasticities of labor demand and supply are sufficiently low. We obtain model- free empirical support for our theoretical predictions by using a novel econometric specification that allows us to estimate spending and tax cut multipliers in recessionary and expansionary episodes, conditional on those being either demand- or supply-driven.

Date: Thursday, November 25

Time: 16:00 Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn

Join Zoom Meeting

https://sseriga-edu.zoom.us/j/88001979487?pwd=cU51SGMxdTBSZzFrWWZ5d2hTWFJJQT09

Meeting ID: 880 0197 9487
Passcode: 374313

10th Annual Lithuanian Conference on Economic Research

The Annual Lithuanian Conference on Economic Research, hosted by the Bank of Lithuania and Vilnius University, will take place on 28 December 2021. Following the success of the 2020 edition, the conference will be held online. This one day conference takes place every year right after Christmas and gives a forum for Lithuanian Economists and their friends to meet each other.

More information: https://meeting2021.econ.lt

Important dates:

  • October 25: open submissions
  • November 25: deadline for submissions
  • December 08: decisions on submissions
  • December 27: registration deadline for external participants
  • December 28: conference

Organizers:

Audinga Baltrūnaitė (Bank of Italy), Simas Kučinskas (Humboldt University of Berlin), Povilas Lastauskas (Bank of Lithuania), Aurelija Proškutė (Bank of Lithuania), Linas Tarasonis (Vilnius University), Alminas Žaldokas (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

BEA online research seminar – Yuri Tserlukevich

We are pleased to invite you to the next BEA’s Online Research Seminars and are delighted to welcome Yuri Tserlukevich (Arizona State University). Yuri Tserlukevich is a financial economist at Arizona State University. Yuri’s research interests are in dynamic models of firm behaviour, real options, asset pricing implications of investment options, capital structure, debt structure, employee compensation. He also taught and conducted research at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Bocconi University in Milan, New Economic School in Moscow, and WU university in Vienna. Beginning 2014 he is a member of the Advisory Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, the Advisory Board member for the Ministry of Tax and Duties, and is an economic policy consultant for the office of the President of Belarus. He obtained his Ph.D. from University of California at Berkeley.

More about the speaker: https://wpcarey.asu.edu/people/profile/1451080

Speaker: Yuri Tserlukevich (Arizona State University)

Title: Risk Management, Agency Cost, and Lending Covenants (with Ilona Babenko and Hendrik Bessembinder)

Abstract:

We document the importance of loan covenants to observed hedging outcomes, by studying lending agreements and derivative positions of U.S. oil and gas producers. The emergence of fracking technology was accompanied by sharp increases in capital spending and borrowing. The contracts involved often include covenants specifying hedging policies, and more frequently for firms with higher expected costs of default. Firms with contractual hedging commitments have lower borrowing costs and perform better during the COVID-19 pandemic, even after controlling for hedging levels. The results imply that understanding firm’s hedging outcomes requires consideration of binding lending covenants employed to mitigate agency conflicts.

Date: Thursday, October 28

Time: 17:00 Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn

Join Zoom Meeting
https://sseriga-edu.zoom.us/j/82464084383?pwd=aEJQdzg1WFdPZnNzN3FtTmI3UVNSZz09

Meeting ID: 824 6408 4383
Passcode: 837993

BEA online research seminar – Jura Liaukonyte

We are pleased to invite you to the next BEA’s Online Research Seminars and are delighted to welcome Jura Liaukonyte (Cornell University). Professor Liaukonyte’s research interests lie at the intersection of applied microeconomics, industrial organization, and quantitative marketing. Her current investigations seek to uncover actionable insights from Big Data, quantify advertising impact on consumer choice (particularly advertising content), understand the impact of food labels, and incorporate insights from behavioral economics into traditional choice models. She holds a PhD from the  University of Virginia, and published in journals such as Management Science, American Journal of Agricultural Economics and International Journal of Industrial Organization among others. 

More about the speaker: https://dyson.cornell.edu/faculty-research/faculty/jl2545/

Speaker: Jura Liaukonyte (Cornell University)

Title: Browsing the Aisles or Browsing the App? How Online Grocery Shopping is Changing What We Buy (with Sai Chintala and Nathan Yang)

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of online grocery retail channels on the variety and diversity of items purchased during regular shopping trips. We leverage unique big data that captures both offline (i.e., purchases made at brick-and-mortar grocery outlet) and online (i.e., purchases made via the Instacart platform) shopping behavior for the same household and the same retailer. For comparability of within-household offline and online shopping trips, we use machine learning techniques to identify characteristic shopping trips. Our empirical analysis reveals that shopping cart diversity is noticeably lower for online shopping trips when online trips are considered to be a replacement of offline shopping trips (as opposed to fill-in or stockpiling online trips). We also find that online shopping baskets typically have significantly fewer fruits and vegetables, which are not picked up via alternative shopping channels by most households. To better understand the drivers behind our results, we find that online trips are more similar to each other than offline trips, potentially suggesting a recommendation system design or past-orders-shortcut mechanism behind our results. Finally, we explore the broader health implications of online shopping by assessing its impact on the types of foods purchased.

Date: Thursday, September 30

Time: 16:00 Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn

Moderator: Linas Tarasonis

Join Zoom Meeting
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Meeting ID: 894 4331 9742
Passcode: 432940

2nd Bank of Lithuania Invited Lecture Series/Conference

Bank of Lithuania and its Center for Excellence in Finance and Economic Research (CEFER) are pleased to announce its 2nd Invited Lecture Series given by Prof. Sir Richard Blundell, University College London, and Institute for Fiscal Studies. The two days lecture will be followed by a separate one-day conference. The lecture’s topic is “Micro-econometrics and Policy Analysis”. The lecture is intended for early stage researchers, both at policy institutions and universities, and PhD students at an advanced level. A short description of topics is provided below.

Please note that participation in lecture and conference are mutually exclusive. We invite submission of papers which are applied in nature, have practical/policy implications, and touch on following broad topics:

  • Tax policy, labor earnings and inequality
  • Human capital investments
  • Inequality over lifecycle and across gender

We are also interested in theoretical advances in the very broad field of micro-econometrics and strongly encourage submissions in this field.

Details of the lecture and the conference are as follows:

  • Duration of lecture: 12 hours
  • Lecture dates: October 13 – 14, 2021
  • Conference date: October 15, 2021

Submissions: Please send your submissions by July 1, 2021 to Ms. Laima Štulaitė (LStulaite@lb.lt).

  • If you are applying for lectures, please attach your CV.
  • If you are applying for the conference, please attach your paper.
  • If you want to attend both, please attach both CV and paper, and mention it clearly in your email.

Acceptance decisions will be sent by July 15, 2021.

Participation fee: The participation fee is EUR 200 (incl. VAT)

Event location: The event will be at the premises of Bank of Lithuania, situated in the beautiful old town of Vilnius, capital of Lithuania. More information here: https://www.govilnius.lt/visit-vilnius

Coronavirus contingency: The event dates were set under the presumption that by the end of 2021, Europe will be (mostly) out of this pandemic. However, as the vaccine rollout is slow, we are going to work simultaneously on three contingency plans:

  1. In-person event: If the situation improves in summer then only in-person event will be organized.
  2. Partial in-person event: The improvement in pandemic situation is heterogeneous across countries. Hence, we will hold in-person event for participants who can travel and arrange online sessions for participants who can’t.
  3.  Full online event: If the situation is quite bad, we will resort to full online event.

Topics for the lecture:

  • Part I. Methods: 

The first part of this course will discuss six distinct, but related, approaches to microeconomic policy evaluation:

  1. social experiment methods,
  2. natural experiments,
  3. matching methods,
  4. instrumental variable methods,
  5. discontinuity design methods,
  6. control function methods.
  • Part II: Dynamic models and methods

The second part of the course will examine recent developments for panel data

  1. Dynamic panel data methods.
  2. Dynamic discrete choices.
  • Part III: Applications:

The third part of the course will examine several specific applications under two broad areas:

  1. Tax policy and labor earnings.
  2. Education policy and human capital investments.

 Organizers

Established in 2015 by the Bank of Lithuania, CEFER is the main research hub in economics and finance in Lithuania. CEFER is part of a network of National Economic Research Organizations along with the leading research institutes across the globe.  CEFER is also pivotal in organizing major conferences (Baltic economic conference, joint conferences with CEBRA/CEPR and Bank of Poland, among others), co-establishing Baltic economic association, developing joint Ph.D. courses and administering Bank of Lithuania research awards named after Vladas Jurgutis. CEFER runs regular research seminars and workshops. Learn more at https://www.lb.lt/en/of-research