Author: balticeco

Please be invited to the upcoming TalTech research seminar, to take place on 23 September at 16:00, in which Merike Kukk (Eesti Pank & Tallinn University of Technology) will present her work: When Weights Matter: Expenditure Reallocation and Food Inflation Across the Price Distribution

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Abstract. This paper highlights the importance of weights in measuring food inflation across the product price distribution. Using barcode-level retail scanner data from Estonia for 2014–2018, we compare base-period-weighted and current-period-weighted year-on-year price changes for food and non-alcoholic beverages. We document consumer purchases are highly concentrated in relatively low-priced products: about one third of purchases are made in the lowest price quintile within product groups, and around 70% are made below the median. Expenditure weights change the measured inflation dynamics, as consumers reallocate expenditure away from products with price increases and toward products with price declines, so base-period weights overstate price increases and understate the role of price decreases. Price dynamics differ systematically across price deciles and across regimes, during deflation lower-priced products experienced deeper deflation, whereas during inflation it was higher in the lower and middle parts of the price distribution. These findings show that expenditure weights and expenditure reallocation are important for understanding measured inflation.

Paper submissions for the 15th Annual Lithuanian Conference on Economic Research are open. This one-day conference is hosted by Lietuvos Bankas that will take place on December 23, 2026, in Vilnius, Lithuania.

The conference will cover a broad range of topics in theoretical and empirical economics, including but not restricted to macroeconomics, microeconomics, financial economics, labour economics, and political economy.

Please submit full papers or extended abstracts here.

The deadline for paper submissions is November 1, 2026. The submitting authors will be notified by November 22, 2026.

More information available at https://meeting.econ.lt/

Please be invited to the upcoming Latvijas Banka’s research seminar, to take place on 13 October at 10:30, in which Diana Bonfim (ECB and Banco de Portugal) will present her work: Monetary Policy at the Margin

Diana will also provide a brief overview of the main findings of the recent ESCB ChaMP research network.

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Abstract. Zero-bank-debt firms (ZBD firms) face, due to their lack of credit history, more difficult access to bank loans than firms with previous bank debt (non-ZBD firms). While overall monetary policy does not affect the likelihood that ZBD firms obtain credit for the first time relative to comparable non-ZBD firms, expansionary monetary policy eases the credit constraints faced by those firms, especially when they are young. As increased access to credit by ZBD firms does not lead to a higher probability of having non-performing loans but has greater effects on employment growth and investment than those experienced by comparable non-ZBD firms, this channel could be beneficial for the whole economy without entailing financial stability risks.

Please be invited to the upcoming University of Tartu research seminar, to take place on 7 October at 14:00, in which Anastasiia Pustovalova and Priit Vahter (both University of Tartu) will present their work: How complementarities between automation and organisational innovation shape the wages of a firm’s employees: The role of social skills

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Abstract. Technological and organisational innovations are often viewed as complementary in improving firm performance. Much less is known, however, about whether employees share the gains associated with these complementarities. This paper investigates whether expected complementarities between automation and organisational innovation are reflected in employee wages and examines the role of employees’ social skills in shaping these outcomes. Using linked employer–employee data for Estonian manufacturing firms, combining firm-level information on automation investments, organisational innovation and ESCO-based measures of social skills, we estimate wage equations using firm fixed effects and coarsened exact matching, and an event study approach. We find no evidence that the joint adoption of automation and organisational innovation generates broad complementarity effects in terms of wage gains. Instead, wage effects are highly heterogeneous. The strongest evidence of wage gains associated with joint adoption of automation and organisational innovation emerges among higher-educated employees working in occupations that require strong social skills and in firms engaged in persistent automation investments.

Please be invited to the upcoming University of Tartu research seminar, to take place on 30 September at 11:00, in which Peter McClenaghan (University of New England) will present his work: Beyond the Heroic Leader: Cultivating Time Persistent Trust (TPT) for Sustainable School Change

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Abstract. Drawn from a six-year, longitudinal qualitative study in regional Australia, we tracked leadership practices across three consecutive school principal “eras.” What we discovered was a form of trust that was not fleeting or tied solely to a single personality. Instead, trust was deliberately fostered, transferred, and maintained over time. This TPT emerged as the most significant enabling factor for shifts in professional practice, allowing the school to navigate “leadership churn” without losing momentum.

To promote the research and analysis of Latvia’s and euro area’s macroeconomic issues by involving the most talented young economists in this work, Latvijas Banka has announced the annual Competition of Student Scientific Research Papers.

Most awarded papers are usually students’ bachelor’s and master’s theses covering topics concerning the Baltic or the euro area economies. See the bottom of this page for the full list of topics.

Submission of papers is open until 31 May 2025. The authors of the winning paper are awarded EUR 2500 and the total prize pot exceeds EUR 9000. 

Latvijas Banka organises the competition already for the 24rd time. Participation is open to citizens and non-citizens of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia as well as foreigners who at the time of the competition are registered as students of higher education institutions accredited in the Baltic States, enrolled in Bachelor’s or Master’s degree programmes, as well as to the students of the Baltic States studying abroad.

Visit this page for more information.

Please be invited to the upcoming Latvijas Banka’s Research seminar, to take place on 23 July 10:30-12:00, in which David Burgherr  (University of Zurich) will present his work: Saving Responses to Mandatory and Voluntary Pension Contributions

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Abstract. To boost retirement savings, many countries mandate worker contributions to pension accounts. This paper investigates saving responses to such mandates throughout the entire portfolio, leveraging detailed administrative tax data from Switzerland and a regression discontinuity design. I find that mandatory pension plans have limited effects on total savings, with an estimated crowd-out rate of 94%. Decomposing the saving response, I show that workers offset mandatory pension contributions by reducing private non-retirement savings, primarily in financial assets. By contrast, there is no substitution between mandatory and voluntary pension savings. Liquidity-constrained workers are less able to reduce private savings in response to mandatory contributions and therefore increase their total savings.

Please be invited to the upcoming Latvijas Banka’s Research seminar, to take place on 8 July 10:00-11:30, in which Tobias König (University of Bonn) will present his work: Wholesale Funding Crises Since 1800

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Please be invited to the upcoming Latvijas Banka’s Research seminar, to take place on 2 July 10:30-12:00, in which Alejandra Inzunza (Bocconi University, Central Bank of Chile) will present her work: The Chilean Pension Withdrawals and the 2025 Reform: Fiscal and Retirement Consequences?

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Abstract. During the COVID 19 pandemic, Chile approved three exceptional laws that allowed workers to withdraw part of their pension accounts. These withdrawals were exceptionally large by international standards. The withdrawals reached around 20% of GDP and depleted the contributory balances of millions of affiliates. Using administrative withdrawal records matched to the 2021 Chilean Household Finance Survey, we estimate that the withdrawals reduced contributory pensions by about 21% on average. The expansion of non contributory pensions in 2022 cushioned the loss in total retirement income to about 8%, although with significant fiscal costs. The Chilean pension reform of 2025 increased the future contribution rate. Our simulations show that this reduces the estimated fiscal burden from 15.8% to about 12.4% of GDP. Future policies such as increasing the retirement age could further lower this cost.

You are kindly invited to attend the Eesti Pankʼs research seminar in Teams on 26 March at 15:00, during which Eeva Kerola (Bank of Finland) and Anni Norring (IMF)  will present on “Effect of the countercyclical capital buffer on firm loans – Evidence from Germany”

The study examines how tightening the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) in Germany affects bank lending to firms, using highly granular loan level data from the European Central Bank. Exploiting the 2022 German CCyB increase and employing a difference in differences identification strategy with Austria as the control group, the authors show that German banks reduce corporate lending volumes and raise lending rates – changes that materialize immediately after the policy announcement, well before implementation. Crucially, the tightening disproportionately affects small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), which face both reduced credit supply and higher borrowing costs, while bigger firms remain largely unaffected. The results highlight the importance of announcement effects in macroprudential policy and point to significant distributional consequences across firm sizes.

MS Teams: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/38756665760372?p=v5kB22pQlWWxArAJzn

Meeting ID: 387 566 657 603 72
Password: iC7xC2XQ