Author: balticeco

You are welcome to submit your paper and attend The Shadow 2025 Conference to be held on 25-28 September 2025 in Warsaw.

The 9th International Conference ¨The Shadow Economy, Tax Behaviour and Insights from Big Data¨ aims at bringing together researchers studying:

• shadow economy,
• tax compliance,
• taxpayer privacy,
• psychological aspects of tax behaviour,
• money laundering,
• corruption,
• formal and informal institutions,
• trust in institutions.

The conference will provide a great opportunity for scholars across disciplines to explore and discuss recent research on the shadow economy, tax behaviour, and related fields. One focus area is the opportunities that the development of big data collection and AI-powered analytics creates for both academic understanding of tax evasion and related policymaking, but also the resulting challenges.

The deadline for submissions of papers is 15 June 2025.

For more information, see the conference webpage: https://shadow2025.sgh.waw.pl/

On 13 May 2025 at 14:00, you a welcome to join a seminar on the topic „On the recent inflation surge in the euro area: Monetary policy when the Phillips curves … are curves”, which will be presented by Alex Grimaud (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, TU Wien)  and is a joint work with his co-authors Alexandre Carrier (European Central Bank), Emanuel Gasteiger (TU Wien, Instituto Universitário de Lisboa) and Gauthier Vermandel (École Polytechnique, Universités PSL & Paris-Dauphine, Banque de France).

The seminar should take around 1 hour and 30 minutes including questions and discussions. There is also the option to dial in via MS Teams.

Abstract: We investigate monetary policy where the wages and prices Phillips curves exhibit true curvature, moving beyond the quasi-linear structure of the standard nonlinear New Keynesian Phillips curves (NKPC). To address this limitation, we propose a New Keynesian (NK) model featuring endogenous adjustment frequencies for price and wage setting. Using Eurozone data spanning 1999 to 2023Q4, we estimate and simulate the nonlinear model. We then study the recent inflation surge and the implication of state-dependent prices and wages for monetary policy in the estimated non-linear model. Unlike conventional models, our framework does not rely mostly on exogenous supply shocks to explain inflation dynamics. Instead, the effects of shocks on inflation dynamics vary by time, magnitude, and state of the business cycle. The inflation-output stabilization trade-off faced by monetary policy varies with business cycle conditions. For example, monetary policy demonstrates greater efficacy in controlling inflation, and supply shocks have larger effects during periods of elevated inflation.

The 7th Baltic Economic Conference will take place on June 26-27, 2025, in Vilnius, Lithuania. The Baltic Economic Conference is organized by the Baltic Economic Association in cooperation with Lietuvos Bankas and ISM University of Management and Economics.

We welcome full-length paper submissions from all fields of economics and finance. Each paper will be assigned a discussant. See the conference website for more details.

The submission deadline is approaching. The last opportunity to submit a paper is on Monday, 17 March.

Link to submission portal: https://www.conftool.pro/bec2025/

You are welcome to attend the conference “Empowering Family Enterprise: Professionalisation and Community Impact”, to be held on 9-10 June 2025 in Riga.

The professionalisation of family enterprise is essential for navigating the complexities of governance, family dynamics, succession planning, and societal impact. Aligning business objectives with family values requires a structured approach to managing both financial and socioemotional priorities and challenges. The conference will explore how professional governance frameworks, investment vehicles such as family offices and family investment companies, and social impact strategies and philanthropy can provide diversification opportunities, competitive advantage, and help manage family dynamics and succession challenges thereby ensuring the continuity of family enterprise across generations.

Visit the conference website for more details.

On 3 April 2025 at 10:00, you a welcome to join a seminar on the topic „America First? The Macroeconomic Implications of Punitive Tariffs”, which will be presented by Natascha Hinterlang from Deutsche Bundesbank and is a joint work with her co-authors Anne Ernst (Deutsche Bundesbank), Marius Jäger (Deutsche Bundesbank + Albert Ludwig University of Freiburg), and Nikolai Stähler (Deutsche Bundesbank).

The seminar should take around 1 hour and 30 minutes including questions and discussions. There is also the option to dial in via MS Teams.

Abstract: Since 2018, punitive tariffs have resurged as tools for protecting national economies, particularly between the US and China. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare impacts of various tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network. The scenarios include unilateral US tariffs, coordinated US-EU tariffs, Chinese retaliation, Europe’s non-participation, and sector-specific versus broad tariffs. Our results show that tariffs initially boost domestic output by making local goods cheaper. While consumption increases permanently, the output benefits are short-lived. Increased production costs and reduced global income negate the output gains over time. China has an incentive to retaliate and when it does so, welfare losses deepen for the affected partners. Additionally, the rest of the world suffers from reduced aggregate income regardless of direct involvement in tariff conflicts. Sector-specific tariffs are found to be less effective in terms of output than broad tariffs by failing to protect non-targeted industries. Overall, tariffs appear inefficient for economic protection due to the high possibility of retaliation.

On 1 April 2025 at 13:00, KEVIN MULLIGAN (Queen’s University Belfast) will present his research “Government funding for firm-level R&D: Recent developments and future research agenda”.

A large body of academic studies and government policy reports suggest that public funding for firm-level R&D plays a key role in driving business innovation. However, several recent developments have created a new research agenda within this literature. Factors such as the R&D policy instrument mix sequencing and the region-specific R&D impacts have become increasingly important for understanding how public R&D support drives business innovation. Until recently, most studies conceptualised the R&D policy instrument mix as a static unit, whereby firms receive, for example, an R&D grant and an R&D tax credit at the same point in time. However, firms can also receive different R&D policy instruments in a sequence over time. In addition, firms located in certain regions benefit from unique advantages such as a critical mass of Universities, science labs and clusters of innovation-intensive firms. This R&D infrastructure produces unique knowledge spillovers that are unavailable to firms located in other regions. Such region-specific knowledge spillovers may supercharge the effectiveness of government R&D support provided to firms, thus widening the gap between more- and less-R&D/innovation intense regions further. Notwithstanding their importance, relatively little research focuses these key issues. This presentation examines these recent developments, using firm-level data to set out a research agenda that offers insights for both academics and policymakers alike.

Zoom link

On 25 March 2025 at 10:00, Johanna Krenz (University of Hamburg) is coming to Latvijas Banka to present her paper on “Household Inequality and the Transmission of QE in Euro Area Countries” (joint with Stylianos Tsiaras). The MS Teams link will be added later.

On 19 March 2025 at 14.00, ESZTER BARANYAI (Central Bank of Hungary) will present her research “Large Language Models and the Labour Market: Spatial Evidence from Job Ads“.

Little is known about the spatial variation of jobs’ exposure to large language models (LLMs) both within and across countries despite LLMs’ spectacular rise in popularity in recent years and the repercussions of technological leaps on regional productivity and employment trends. We webscrape detailed task descriptions from all job ads listed on the largest online job portal in Hungary and apply a mapping approach. Extrapolating to the county’s labour market, we estimate average exposure across jobs to LLMs in Hungary to be around 8% – somewhat lower than in the US. Mapping different occupational classifications, Hungary has a higher share of occupations associated with physical labour – and thus with lower LLM potential – and a lower share of LLM-exposed office occupations. Very rarely does job-level exposure exceed 30% in our Hungarian sample, highlighting complementary attributes. Of the factors studied, industry appears most closely related to LLM exposure. Exposure is higher in more urban areas with a higher population of young adults. Results draw attention to areas – spatial and industry – where productivity benefits could occur and where education and employment policies could help manage the effects of technological transition on employment.

Co-authors: Marcell Granát (Central Bank of Hungary), Mór Szepesi (Yale University, Central Bank of Hungary)

Zoom link

You are kindly invited to attend the Eesti Pankʼs research seminar in Teams on 13 March at 11:00 am, when Michael Burda (Humboldt University of Berlin) will present on “The Macroeconomics of Cryptocurrencies: Three Easy Pieces”.

In his study, Prof Burda surveys the capacity of simple macroeconomic models to account for persistent, positive valuations of privately issued digital assets based on the blockchain. Each of these ”three easy pieces” – models of transactions demand for a medium of exchange, consumption-based capital asset pricing, and search and matching – highlights important dimensions of digital assets. Until technological innovations can separate joint features that characterize cryptocurrencies, however, their mutual interference is likely to impede their widespread adoption as a form of money.

MS Teams link
Meeting ID: 355 740 492 239
Passcode: u4GE9V7X

You are welcome to join the online research seminar by the Department of Finance which will take place on Thursday, 20 February, 15:30-16:30. During the seminar Greta Keliuotytė-Staniulėnienė will present the topic „Evaluation of The Impact of a Company`s ESG Profile on Stock Price Resilience And Financial Performance – a Cross-Sectoral Approach“.

MS Teams link